EVERY time
David Weinstein swirls wine in a glass, you could say he is managing his
assets.
Mr. Weinstein, a New York dealer in French art glass, is a wine collector, for
investment as well as pleasure. He owns approximately 1,000 cases of wine,
primarily red Bordeaux. Like all investors, Mr. Weinstein has been watching his
market in the last eight months, which wine-collecting experts agree has
experienced falling prices of 20 to 40 percent.
“When you have fluctuations, you weather the storm, or start to drink, or buy
more,” Mr. Weinstein said on the telephone last week, with wise acceptance. “Buy
more” is what wine-collecting experts, including wine-fund managers, traders,
auction specialists, retailers and collectors, are saying. Though there is
disagreement about the size of the price correction in the market, and the
bargains to be had, experts agree that it is a good time to buy
investment-quality wines. And though prices fell in the last four months of
2008, prices in the first four months of 2009 were heading back up.
The time to act, experts say, is now, particularly if you collect wine and want
to fill previously expensive gaps in your collection. The biggest corrections
have affected some of the biggest wines, whose prices were correspondingly steep
during the booming wine-investment interest of the last several years, including
wines classified as “first growth” Bordeaux like Château Margaux, Mouton
Rothschild, Latour and others. And recent regional soft spots, like the market
for
California wines, represent a chance to “buy high” and pay less
too.
“It’s a great time to buy wine, the best time in a decade,” said Charles Curtis,
who is in charge of
Christie’s North American wine
department. “People we’ve never heard of are jumping into the market, taking
advantage of the lull to get into collecting, now that they have access.”
In addition to kinder prices, the availability of desirable vintages is better
too, especially younger ones — 1982 and after. And though investment-quality
wines still range in the hundreds to thousands to tens of thousands of dollars a
bottle, according to Jamie Ritchie, who is in charge of
Sotheby’s North American
wine department, “for the same dollars, you can drink a lot better now.”
Mr. Ritchie said more collectors were buying for consumption right now. And at
auction, he added, the smaller buyer now has more opportunity, as big-ticket,
big-invoice collectors have retreated.
One of the wine world’s most important collectors,
Aubrey K. McClendon, chief
executive of the
Chesapeake
Energy Corporation, a natural gas producer, recently came to auction to
sell, in fact. Mr. McClendon was caught in a cash crunch last fall. His
9,000-bottle wine collection came to sale at
Sotheby’s in two parts, in New
York in March and in Hong Kong in April. The sales realized close to $9 million,
well above the $5 million presale estimate.
Mr. McClendon’s collection was strong on the large, fat-cat bottles like
magnums, melchiors, imperials and methuselahs — anything over the standard 750
milliliters. Larger formats are actually a better value at the moment, Mr.
Ritchie of Sotheby’s said, as collectors concentrate on more economical bottles
and half-bottles.
Though falling prices kept many collectors from selling, reducing the amount of
wine on the market, returning prices in the last four months have produced an
uncomfortable volume of wine to sell, said Charles Curtis of Christie’s.
This too might be an opportunity for buyers. Mr. Curtis said that Bordeaux like
Château Mouton
Rothschild 1982, typically $1,000 a bottle, were trading at a 30 percent
discount. Drink up. And less illustrious vintages, like 1988, were “trading for
a song,” he said. “Those wines are dirt cheap.” (It might be worth noting that
one man’s dirt is another man’s truffled soil.)
Wines that were sold as investment “futures” by the Bordeaux chateaus — wine
sold before it was bottled — also represent an opportunity now, as investors
seek to sell while prices for the wines, now bottled and available, deflate from
prices set several years ago by the speculation.
The 2006 vintage, now being delivered, has not increased in value from the
original offering, and its price could fall, said Geoffrey Troy, the owner of
New York Wine Warehouse, a retailer and an auction partner with Christie’s.
The 2005 vintage, widely acknowledged to be one of the best in the last 30
years, is now a substantial bargain — for anyone who didn’t speculate on it.
“The 2005 vintage got badly hit,” said Miles Davis, a partner in
Wine Asset Managers, a London-based manager of funds invested in the wine
market and one of a growing class of funds devoted to wine as an investment
commodity.
“IT started trading in ’06, went physical in ’08,” Mr. Davis said. “There were
fantastic price rises — then it suffered the biggest fall.” (Wine Asset
Managers, in a report issued in April, noted a correlation between the number of
billionaires — down 30 percent in a year, according to Forbes magazine — and the
wine market’s price correction, which the fund put at 22 percent.)
One of the wine world’s leading indicators, Liv-ex 100 Fine Wine Index, an exchange that
calculates monthly the price movement of 100 fine wines, including the top
Bordeaux, puts the market recovery in 2009 at 4.1 percent, though year to year
it is down 17 percent.
Anthony Maxwell, who works with Liv-ex, said that he thought that wine, though
its investment activity represented $3 billion internationally, should never be
more than 10 percent of an investor’s portfolio. He added that it was not a
market worth entering for less than $50,000.
One long-term opportunity for a collector to consider might be the rapidly
developing interest by the Chinese in fine wines. Hong Kong has become the
capital of high-roller collecting. Sotheby’s held its first Hong Kong wine sale
ever — part two of the McClendon collection — in April; Christie’s returned to
Hong Kong last year with regular sales after a seven-year hiatus.
Acker, Merrall & Condit,
a retailer and wine auctioneer, is doubling its live sales there this year.
Chinese collectors are spending substantially on investment-quality wine,
adopting it as a luxury good and a mark of prestige. The big difference in the
new Chinese wine investment market? They’re drinking it.
Collecting and consumption by the Chinese could affect the availability and
value of great wines, which can survive and mature for decades, farther down the
road. Buying the right labels is, in effect, a layaway plan — if you can afford
to compete now.
David Sokolin, chief executive of Sokolin, a wine retailer and brokerage in
Bridgehampton, N.Y., sees emerging collecting markets like China, Brazil and
Russia as part of a democratization of the appreciation of fine wine generally.
Because of the Internet, he said, it’s anybody’s game to play.
“Where you had to be part of a privileged class to learn 10 years ago,
technology allows everyone to know about wine now, at light speed,” Mr. Sokolin
said. “There’s a new wine intelligentsia, and it formed online.”
He mentioned Robert Parker, the influential wine critic, and
his 100-point rating system. Mr. Parker’s unexpectedly positive reviews recently
of the 2008 vintage — an average of 94.7 for the top 30 scores — bounced the
trading price for 2008 Lafite, which was released for sale as futures during the
last two months, by 75 percent overnight.
“A kid in Asia can go to Parker’s site and look at the points,” Mr. Sokolin said
of the global cellar, “even if he can’t read the reviews.”